Reply To: Question in regards to Probability

[johnsocp 1706xp 0]

So here are some numbers assuming you start at table 0 because all good mathematicians start at 0.

To hit the 5th table

5 rolls -> (Special note 0! is defined as 1, math who knew) -> 0.000004019 or 0.0004019%

10 rolls -> 0.0006555 or 0.06555%

20 rolls -> 0.01689 or 1.689%

50 rolls -> 0.1700 or 17%

51 rolls -> 0.1725 or 17.25%

100 rolls -> 0.07778 or 7.778%

Note the probability goes down after a while, since we are expecting only 5 out of 100 rolls are 12s.  I’d have to calculate out the distribution to find where the peak is.  It is somewhere between 50 and 100 rolls, since this is a normal distribution approximately 50% of the time people will get there before that time.  Also since this is a random distribution as we can see there is almost an 8% chance it will take 100 rolls.

Edit – Duh remembering more of my probability, I only took that class 25 years ago, the median is going to be 60.  The equation in question is simply N = np where N is the number of successes you want, n is the number of rolls, p is the probability of success so in this case 5 successes 1/12 probibility 5=n/12 or 60.