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Redscope I’d take most of what you say as good sense if it wasn’t for the fact these “issues” haven’t suddenly cropped up during CoVid.
In fact this has been going on for at the very least the past five or six years (although it’s has certainly gotten worse during CoVid). In those five to six years GW have had more than enough time to sort out production issues and/or perhaps become better at predicting demand.
I think part of the problem is GW have branched out to doing cards (with rules on), special dice (because the game no-longer uses “normal” dice), and an over production (design wise) of rulebooks and Codex books (making the rules for each game a jumbled mess). Rather than selling just a few books and concentrating on their “core” products of miniatures and paint they now have a bloated inventory.
Problem is if you raise demand with your customers (with all the sneak peeks and new rules for “uber” units to make toy space marines even MOAR overpowered vs Xenos armies), then the customer are going to “want” those products. And for YEARS now GW have “underestimated” demand?
As a large multi-national, with high street stores across the world it seems strange that GW can not “estimate demand” for years now. All I can think of i s the fact that perhaps they like things this way. So it must be working for GW (but alas no so good for the FLGS stockists and the lowly customers).