GW share price dive bombs! HORROR!!!
January 5, 2011 by warzan
Well... all I can say is I'm not really surprised...
So the interweb is ablaze with reports of Games Workshop having a hard year and ultimately I'm sure the recession will be blamed (as always it's the consumers fault for not spending their cash!), so let me put forward another possibility.
We have had one of the most boring spells from GW that I can remember in the last few years. Let's be honest the releases over the past few months haven't exactly been setting us on fire and I've found it a bit of a struggle to maintain any interest in the release schedule for 40K or WHFB stuff for the last few months now.
The promising days of cool releases for Apocalypse and of course the mighty Space Hulk seem so far away now. While there is no denying the recent releases are technically and artistically beautiful, the question has to be asked "are they exciting?"
A crazy old multi-millionaire once told me that not every industry is affected by recessions and entertainment tends to do well. My take on this gem of wisdom was that because the entertainment industries are based on creativity they have a natural defence "the ability to help us forget about the rest of the crap going on in the world".
I can't help but wonder where the 'exciting creativity' has been within the walls of GW this past year?
Perhaps we're just in a natural lull?
However, I can't help but wonder... maybe the company has lost all backbone... maybe they have just become totally risk adverse, in an effort to demonstrate to share holders, that they are a stable company who are playing it safe... striving for a modest growth year on year.
However, to the community, I think it is seen as a company, who's just not doing the cool and exciting stuff we used to see.
Would someone like to remind me what the "must have" GW kit was this Christmas?
So what to do? ... well... how about taking some risks again, they have been paying off after all!
Start by fulfilling the potential that Apocalypse has shown and get a superheavy out for every faction. (plastic warhound is a no brainer!)
Push harder on the Cities of Death and introduce Tau kits and Eldar Kits.
Raid Forgeworld, it's a profitable R&D division, so treat it as one and pull the cool stuff out and get it into mass production... even if that means rolling out plastic-resin products.
Jes and Phil did an amazing job on rebooting the Dark Eldar, but part of me suspects that it just took too long to happen for it to mean anything. So much so, that all but the hardcore fans (and our hats go off to those guys, you have our respect here in BoW), had little to no interest in them.
Perhaps then, it's time to start keeping on top of the armies, with a faster more aggressive release schedule. Move away from the codex and the army book and introduce stat cards! This will break you free of the ball and chain that the codex/book format has become. With stat cards you can release new units at any time... damn it... even the Forgeworld models can become a living part of the game with an official stat card.
You have the ability to move to a completely different and agile business model that will let creativity and excitement flow.
So how about it?
BoW Warren
Source - BBC News 05/01/2011
I wonder how Privateer Press is doing? GW products are too expensive for their mileage. They need to find a way to get gamers more involved in their product. I think 2 new kits for each race that hasn’t seen an update in a while, would be every beneficial… or even just one. I would say mirror PP and keep churning out small model updates for all the factions/armies. It keeps players hanging on, instead of just giving up on seeing any new models for several years. Look at Tau! Throw them a bone! How difficult would it be to… Read more »
I hear PP is doing great ! I could be wrong, but… Their release schedule is exciting, their release pace is frantic, their minis are always of a better quality than GW (wasn’t always so in the first years, but now GW doesn’t even compare anymore…), their universe is rich, very cool, and above all original (GW’s thing is just to rip off old concepts), you can even play it with D&D if you want, their game system is easy to learn in ten minutes, without an expensive rulebook, you don’t need a gazillion minis to play an army with… Read more »
“bags of holding”
Sweet geek reference!!!
We know for a fact that GW’s business model is centered on attracting new players to the game. What that means is they intend to “take it slow” and sell off existing products, while keeping new stuff to a minimum. This makes perfect sense if your investors are calling the shots. The problem is that growth seems pretty slow in the wargaming industry. For every ten 12 year old that GW manages to sell a starter set to, maybe one or two will actually keep up with the hobby. What the community would like to see is a company that… Read more »
Agreed, and a Battlebox-type product from GW wouldn’t hurt either. AoBR is great, but not everyone wants to play those armies.
Exactly! I´ve been trying to get younger players involved at our local club but most of them buy a box or two and then quit because they don´t have the long term interest to paint and collect. And it takes a while to learn the rules… I´m also moving away from GW to more specialized games within the historical wargaming “scene” and scale modelling because I think GW lacks the passion and creativity to share with the gamers. GW:s models and kits are superb but for the money you pay for let´s say one single Baneblade you could get a… Read more »
Not only that, but lets face it. How enjoyable is the game at lower point levels? One might even say it is slightly “broken” depending on army match-ups and so forth. As a 40k player, I really only begin to enjoy the game at the 1500pt level. If GW made the game more interesting and playable from the outset, it would hold more players. As it is, you buy a box of minis that you think is cool looking and you can’t even use them. Not to mention the Battalion Box Sets! It is quite an investment to get a… Read more »
Marketing to teens is a probably a bad idea right now. GW just cant compete with Call of Duty, Ipod…or whatever trendy new stuff kids are jumping all over. My little brother started an army after he saw me play and all his friends made fun of him. He loved the game untill that point and had no problems with the rules.
How in the name or Gork can GW attract new, younger players when your average army costs £250?
I remember being 14. I had to save for weeks to scrape together £10 for a rhino or tactical squad. Perhaps children are richer these days or the demographic has changed?
I’m looking out for the new Stormraven – but at £40 each, or ten percent of my mortgage payment – that’s a steep price to pay.
I agree with you Warren!!
They should copy the market strategy Rackham had on their humble beginnings… That was very well for them and they rised only to be overtopped by the self GW
Rackham had the best metal miniatures I´ve seen since Mithril LOTR´s ones… They also had stat cards and it was easy to play with!!
There is one more explanation that may not be entierly obvious. In the past few years GW has done really well….why? Because they lisenced their IP to game developers. There really wern’t any warhammer games to speak of in 2010 excapt for the DOW expansion. This may seem a little strange, but it’s true..lisencing IP is a major source of revenue for GW and 2010 was a slow year. What we may see, if things get desperate, is GW finaly breaking down and whoring out it’s IP to everyone. That’s is fine with me, because I really look forward to… Read more »
YAY!
PowerPants ftw! lol
Then again…if you did have Ultramarines underwear people might mistake you for a Baltimore Colts Fan…
you’re right, a more aggressive approach is the way to go. especially something like a plastic warhound or thunderhawk. some of the product this year were a bit dull. I have to say lately I’m more excited about the new forge world releases than the ones of games workshop. the prospect of a new reaver titan excites me more than any of the announced products yet by games workshop. indeed a stats cards system would open up the game, and would also make it easier during the game to look up stats and special rules, always flicking through that book… Read more »
To be honest I think that GW has lost some of the creativity that looks after most of its ‘longer in the tooth’ clientele. Looking back over the past few months from September, the big releases were Island of Blood and the new WFB book, some new/plastic high elf models, the Dark Eldar (who quite frankly desperately needed the makeover) and what? Just hobby essentials. I can appreciate where they are coming from I mean a portable art station is useful but what use is it if i have nothing juicy to sink my teeth into. GW has based its… Read more »
It’s good that they do more general supplies, but they’re a bit late… And their tools are low quality compared to what you can find in any good hardware store. I don’t think the portable art station will have much success, but you never know…
I think we’re seeing the issue of a fun and creative company trying to live in heady world of big business. Look at the movie industry – how often do we get great first time directors produce outstanding movies only to on go and make poor next films because of the demands of the business heads handcuffing ideas. But I still feel GW could save it, the core game system[s] and world they live it has lots more leg room. I agree with Warren they MUST change the way to roll out models/rules. They must become more flexible, listen to… Read more »
Forgeworld really hold the future for GW.
Service and customer care are better than GW.
Their release schedule is much better – even the slightly cheesy xmas jigsaw of a future release was fun.
I’ve one question for the community – where does GW get best income from.
a – the 12 year old beginner that buys the starter set and a couple of paints? Then gives up?
Using up lots of store/staff time.
or
b – the 30/40 something gamers that have 3+ armies [big armies too] and big hobby setups and terrain and buy IA books and black library…
They get it from b, because of all the years collecting…
But now GW do want the a, why?? Well, the hard sell of the redshirts can make a lost father or a lost little Timmy boy to buy more than five hundred $ in the shop´s material (starter sets, paints, brushes, basecoat sprays, etc… While the old gamer only gets into the shop for any paint or a blister to work with for any conversion
I think they get the most income from the gamers with 3+ armies obviously. However, if they are not hooking new players, the game will die out.
So their campaign to open more and more shops, could be a mistake. Have some shops for the kids and newbies, but keep the online sales team good to support the bigger/older spenders?
Yep I agree with garwjenk. They still need to attract new gamers to stop competition getting too strong, to maximise potential revenue (more people – more sales) and there is always the chance it takes off and becomes big(-ger than it already is?). But ultimately they must rely on their fanbase of older people who can afford to splash out 200 pounds on a new army and buy a 40 pound rulebook.
anyone else think it’s a coincidence that GW would release new models for both armies in the 8th edition set?….12 year olds….who bought island of blood….should now be upgrading their armies! Why aren’t they doing that?
I love reading the codex of my favourite army, but it may be time to change. However I would point to GWs business decisions, especially at a micro level, as being all wrong. For example if they are trying to encourage new people to join their games so much then why are battleforces becoming more and more of a rarity? Why did the price increase increase on the starter set, when it could be used as a loss leader or at least it could have a lower price to get people into the game. Increased prices doesn’t always mean increased… Read more »
I agree a schedule would be great – something to plan for/ save for.
I used to work in the games industry and launch slippage was a constant happening. Still is. But they still make money…
Hard to speculate unless you’re a business person who understands this hobby from a business perspective, not a consumer perspective. Could be a blip in a bigger picture and that’s all.
Why don’t they work with other modelling companies instead of taking legal action on them? To commission a new model must cost quite a bit. You need to have an expert modeller make it. Create a template piece, Have the molds created to mass produce the piece, the costs add up when you take into account the staggering number of GW models out there. Maybe outsourcing some models and add ons to other companies, with the agreement made to put the quality and and names of both creators on the box? Also, the same could apply to areas that GW… Read more »
I think that stat cards or electronic codexes are good ideas. “codex creep” is killing some armies and really discouraging players from starting them.
Codex creep is the biggest turnoff in 40K to me, electronic Codexes and stat cards are the way to go. I know a lot of people who are leaving the game for greener pastures due to the incredible imbalance brought about by codex creep. I have seriously considered leaving the hobby and I have been playing since 2 edition era.
The problem GW has is they’re trying to use regular business models (ie cut costs/raise prices to increase profits) but these don’t work for wargaming. There are two sides of GW: The Hobby and the Business. The success of one relies entirely on the success of the other. Without the business side making a profit the can’t fund the hobby side(gaming tables in stores painting lessons etc) and without the hobby side they can’t make money as people won’t stick around long enough to really get into the game and start spending. Part of the problem as Warren pointed out… Read more »
I play 40K and I see the point many people have made. I think they came out with some real good stuff this year but the issue is they just never followed up with the cool releases with solid content. Case in point is the release of the Spearhead rules. OK the only guys that got new models where IG and Eldar. If Spearhead was handled better we would see people with massive tank formations almost every time you enter GW, but nope, I never seen a single game played. So that tells me not to invest in that.
I think GWs biggest problem are the high prices not the games in it self or the creativity (look at the new Skaven stuff). The new WH FB edition is for huge units but its too expensive to buy them. Look at mantic! the only reason they are doing good is because they have some nice Plastic kits and lower prices. GW should at least provide more bundles in their online store with a decent discount. It works at mantic. How difficult can that be! (Hordes wouldn’t be a problem anymore) I’m not a huge fan of stat cards! ok… Read more »
@bigbri I have to agree bringing back chapter approved supplements and possibly other articles for WD are a creative must, in septembers and octobers WD we had the Ask the ‘Eavy metal team section. Now i know a lot of people don’t like this section but i personally found it helpful. But that is another argument entirely. I think a way of sorting out the problem of the codex/army book system is to possibly incorporate stat cards, but still keep the books themselves at a slightly cheaper price. I mean I remember when they were £12.00. The cards are a… Read more »
I think the structure of their release schedule is getting very stale. Dose anyone really want to wait 4-5 years for their favored army to get new releases? Can anyone afford it when a whole army is revamped? This, compounded with their desire to cycle last edition’s good models into this edition’s bad to make people buy the new releases can be upsetting to people who have existing armies.(carnifexes for tervigons, which dont even have official models?) It is only healthy to focus on new players, but GW need to tap into their existing consumer base rather than discard them.… Read more »
interesting that as off 16.20 the drop is now only 11%.
The share price will fluctuate a bit. The share price is really quite meaningless, the sales forecast is the problem area :o(
I haven’t thought about GWs ability to produce their games before, but this post has got me thinking… I refuse to buy issues of WD, since I believe its just a waste of money. Its getting bigger, pricy, but I’m finding little in it interests me anymore. Its nice to see the work/armies of other players, and maybe an odd piece of modeling I never thought of, but going full issue on LotR? Not to bang on those who play the system, but I never seen it played at the various GW stores I go to…hell, the red/black shirts don’t… Read more »
I still think they should change the price for the starter sets. I started with The Lord of the Rings when I was about nine years old and the only way how that was possible was because they had the magazines with rules and models every two weeks for seven euro’s. I had a friend introduced to 40k lately and it costed him about 120 euro’s, so I say that if Games-Workshop wants to get more people into the hobby, then they should make the starter sets cheaper, making a freaking Island of Blood set of 78 euro’s does not… Read more »
3 things . . .
1.) along with their mostly unexciting release schedule has any one notice how **** the WhiteDwarves are now? ‘YaWn.’
2.) not keen on stat cards, keep the books but just release more data sheets and liber apocalyptas in WD that can be used OFFICIALLY in normal games as well as apocalypse…
3.) I think Tinracer is 10% right that most of their income come from long time gamers, stop being obtuse saying that they need newbies, of course they do, but they dont ONLY need newbies!!!
EDIT _ _ _ 100% 😉
I’m actually not surprised that their stocks have dropped. GW did a lot of bone head business moves this year. A big one was getting all their on-line independent retailers to take down all GW pictures and not allowing many of them to have GW products in shopping carts. Yes, let’s make it harder for people view and buy our product. Smart one?! I can understand that they want people to go to their on-line store, but for the average person if someone is selling it cheaper they’ll go there. Since most independent on-line stores sell GW product with a… Read more »
It’s quite sad, I love GW but they are taking the micky with the pricing as well. I mean, I play necrons and if I want to buy a set of 12 necron warriors with 3 scarab swarms it will cost me £20.50. When I first saw this I neerly died, maybe thats why the shares have gone down, people don’t want to start a hobby that costs so much.
ok gw are a company and they have to make money but there so frigiin exspensive i mean you dont even get a full unit in a box witch is so over priced plus what really ticks me off is when they bring out a new rule set or army book/codex so soon after the larst one im fed up with gw im glad i switched to bolt action
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